Newsletter June/July
- TF
- Aug 17, 2024
- 7 min read
Updated: Jan 28
Advanced air mobility, the spark of nuclear, and some snapshots across government, agriculture, quantum, and sport. We looked across sectors. Here's what grabbed our attention. —TF
AUTO & TRANSPORTATION
NASA's Advanced Air Mobility Mission (AAM) and The FAA are committed to guiding the industry's development of electric air taxis and drones. Airspace blueprints have been released, and NASA states that the industry will flourish by 2030.
Electric air taxi Archer Aviation has now received FAA approval to start commercial operation. As of February, Joby Aviation has already completed stage three out of the five FAA certifications. Further discussions on the integration of drones and air taxis into national airspace will take place at upcoming FAA symposium in Baltimore, July 30-August 1.
To date, both New Hampshire and Minnesota have legalized roadable aircraft. Some American-based companies in the street-legal flying marketplace include:
Alef Aeronautics: "Rise Above." Alef can drive, take off vertically, fly forward, fit in a parking space, and travel 200 miles on the road and 110 miles in flight. The company is now accepting pre-orders, and production is expected to begin by end 2025. Venture capitalist Tim Draper is an investor. Note: I had the pleasure of interviewing Tim Draper in 2015.
Samson Switchblade: "The flying sports car." The Switchblade is a three-wheel, hybrid-electric vehicle that shape shifts in under 3 minutes to fly up to 200mph and 13,000 feet.
Aska A5: "Drive and fly." An aerodynamic 4-seater electric hybrid VTOL that has up to 150mph flight speed with a 250-mile flight range. Target for commercialization: 2026.
Doroni: "Your driveway is your launchpad." Doroni's H1-X is a two-seater eVTOL with 25-minute fast charge for 40-minute flight time. Top speed 120mph. Test flight is anticipated for end 2024.
AUTONOMOUS Highlight
"The Next Generation of Warehouse Automation." Freespace Robotics is a portfolio company from Carnegie Foundry, a robotics and AI venture studio that partners with National Robotics Engineering Center (NREC) at Carnegie Mellon University. In March, U.S. Steel made a significant investment. Note: Nippon Steel is in the process of buying U.S. Steel.
Anduril Industries Very insightful interview with Palmer Luckey, CEO of Anduril, by Bloomberg journalist Emily Chang. Worth the watch.
AGRICULTURE
The U.S. Department of Agriculture held its 100th Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, "Cultivating the Future."
A few contemporary-minded sessions stood out:
• Long-term Agricultural Projections (Office of the Chief Economist, USDA)
• Regenerative and Organic Agriculture (Rodale Institute)
• Cell Cultured Meat and Poultry: How Do We Label It? (Good Food Institute)
Note: As of late, there's been pushback against cultivated meat which is grown from animal cells. Florida and Alabama have banned its sale. Beginning July 1, lab-grown meat, plant-based meat, imitation egg products and meat alternatives made with insect protein will need to be labeled in Iowa. In South Dakota, a bill has been introduced to outlaw lab-grown meat for school lunches.
Orange Juice Crisis?
Drought, hurricanes, heat stress and tree disease may led to an orange juice crisis. Brazil is the world’s largest exporter and Florida is the main grower in the U.S. However, according to the latest “Citrus: World Markets and Trade” report, which is published in January and July each year, U.S. orange production will rebound in Florida and California, but lowered production is expected in Brazil and the EU. The International Fruit and Vegetable Association (IFU) is currently advocating for the use of mandarins instead.
GOVERNMENT
“I’d like to think Florida will be an example for the rest of the country about what Freedom represents...We [Miami] will be the first major American city that ends homelessness. —Ken Griffin, CEO Citadel. Milken Institute Global Conference 2024. Interview by Sara Eisen, CNBC.
The TXSE Group backed by BlackRock and Citadel plans to launch a new national stock exchange in Dallas, Texas (TXSE).
November Election
In a recent podcast, Martin Wolf, the Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times interviewed Robert Kagan, Senior Fellow at Brookings Institution. Kagan speculates that if Trump loses the election: "... you can be confident he's going to declare fraud." Adding he states: "The other interesting thing, and this is something that I get into in the book [Rebellion] which is the possibility of secession or nullification." When prompted by Wolf, Kagan dismissed the reality of a civil war stating: "it could be a civil crisis."
Top Lobbyists: Bloomberg Government
9th Annual Top-Performing Lobbying Firms Report released in April by Bloomberg Government indicated that: Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck LLP was the firm with the most reported revenue in 2023 compared to 2022, with Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP coming in second. The firm with the largest percentage increases in revenue was Actum, with a 1128% percentage change.
ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT
Energy Market Trends
S&P Global Commodity Insights released "Five trends that will define global power markets in the next 10 years."
A few major insights include:
• Fossil fuel will still generate over 35% of global electricity by 2035.
• Global generation from low carbon resources, including hydro and nuclear, will double from 2024 levels.
• Battery storage and hydrogen will grow a lot— averaging $775 billion annually between now and 2030.
SPOTLIGHT: Exowatt
Miami-based Exowatt stores solar energy in thermal batteries. Its modules are designed to fit standard shipping containers, easily deployed for commercial and industrial projects. Exowatt expects to offer electricity for as low as $0.01 per kilowatt-hour. Launched by Hannan Parvizian and Jack Abraham in 2023.
FUSION
The dream of fusion feels like forever, even though there have been many investments, such as Google's partnership with TAE. But now with the spark of AI, the drive to achieve commercially available fusion is underway.
Note: There are multiple types of fusion reactors, and AI is being used to help achieve the promise of cheap, clean, unlimited energy.
Helion
Founded in 2013 and based in Washington, Helion is positioned as a leader. It's building the "world's first fusion power plant," slated for 2028, and Microsoft has announced it will be a vendor. Nucor, one of America's largest steel companies, has also formed a partnership that involves Helion powering one of its steelmaking facilities. Helion's approach to fusion is its magneto-inertial technology which uses helium-3 and deuterium to create plasma and involves magnets and compression until it achieves direct electricity recapture—which then would be available to the grid.
Note: While deuterium can be sourced from water, helium-3 is rare on Earth. The company states it will produce helium-3 by fusing deuterium. Since helium-3 is abundant on the Moon, it could also be mined. Interlune, based in Seattle, is one such company working towards harvesting helium-3 and other natural resources from space.
In collaboration with MIT, CFS is manufacturing high-temperature superconducting magnets and building an energy fusion machine called SPARC, a tokamak device that is smaller and cheaper than past models. Note: Tokamak devices confine plasma using magnetic fields in a donut shape called a torus.
Since CFS began in 2018 as a spin out of MIT's Plasma Science and Fusion Center, it has raised more than $2 billion in funding. In 2023, it was chosen by the DOE as one of eight companies to be awarded funding by the Milestone-Based Fusion Development Program which supports the Biden Administration's goals outlined in its Bold Vision for Commercial Fusion Energy and the Net-Zero Game Changers Initiative. The ultimate achievement for CFS is a fusion power plant called ARC. Its magnets, in addition to being used for nuclear fusion, could have alternative applications in industries such as transportation, energy and medicine.
The Other Seven The other seven DOE winners included:
Xcimer—Founded in 2022 in Denver Colorado, Xcimer is pursing laser-driven fusion. Backed by Bill Gates' Breakthrough Energy Ventures and venture capital firm Hedosophia, among others. |
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SPOTLIGHT: Oklo Oklo is developing microreactors, such as its Aurora, and hoping to deploy them on a global scale. Rather than nuclear fusion, Oklo is focused on nuclear fission. In May, the company began trading on the NYSE after solidifying its partnership with AltC Acquisition Corp. The company also has partnerships with Diamondback Energy, Centrus Energy Corp, and is developing fuel recycling technologies in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. national laboratories. Oklo was the brainchild of Jacob DeWitte and Caroline Cochran.
QUANTUM SPOTLIGHT: Niobium According to Argonne National Laboratory, niobium is making a comeback. By stripping away niobium oxide and inserting three layers of aluminum to the niobium junction, a group led by Stanford University’s David Schuster is reinstating niobium as viable qubit material for quantum science. |
CULTURE
SPORT
Dubbed the Olympics of the future, Enhanced Games is where athletes will use performance enhancing drugs to "demonstrate what the human body is truly capable of." The annual event is scheduled for the second half of 2025. Led by Aron D'Souva, investors include Peter Thiel and Balaji Srinivasan.
MEDIA
If you haven't seen the 100% AI-made video, "C3PO ft. Childish Gambino—Gold Gang" by Spacecadet, check it out.
LEXICON
New language is essential to shifts in business. For years now, key words have been resilient, transformational, and some version of impossible possibilities. Although not strikingly new, it's good to mark the introduction of "American Dynamism" and "discrete optimization" into mainstream vernacular. See the switch from global to planetary, and track the growing importance of the term intergenerational.
CREATIVE
An 81-year-old man was arrested in California for terrorizing his neighborhood with a slingshot. Police say there was no injuries and no motive—he just wanted to cause mischief. The similarity to Hoppípolla by Sigur Rós is remarkable.
Kind Regards,
TF